Blog - Seattle Real Estate Agents - Seattle Homes for sale in WA

As Barron's just stated in a July 14, 2008 article, could we be at the bottom or close to the bottom in our housing downturn?

In this new world of Blogging and the Internet we come across many different things everyday. We see and hear all the troubling news about how bad the Seattle Real Estate Market is and how bad the National economy is, and today we even read someone saying that he thought we are in a full fledged depression. As Dave Neihaus would say "My Oh My" where are these people coming from. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and there have always been the doom sayers out there but lets look at some facts here about the Seattle Real Estate Market.

We recently received a sales analysis from one of the Title Companies we work with here in Seattle and the following numbers are very interesting. These are resale numbers for homes in different locations and neighborhoods around and in Seattle. These are sales figures from May of 2007 through May of 2008

Area......................# of Sales YTD......................................Average Price YTD
...............................2008.........2007.....%Change......2008..............2007........%Change


Ballard.......................231..........316.......-27%.........$518,242.......$525,907......-1%
Bellevue....................376..........617.......-39%.........$900,769.......$931,086......-3%
Federal Way.............227..........361.......-37%.........$320,164........$333,990.....-4%
Green Lake..............450..........647.......-30%.........$630,758........$601,366......+5%
Issaquah...................181...........226.......-20%........$587,158.......$632,334......-7%
Kent...........................400..........647.......-38%.........$330,833.......$363,762......-9%
Magnolia....................180..........264.......-32%.........$821,126.......$804,701......+2%
Mt Baker....................249..........409.......-39%.........$839,440.......$751,435....+12%
Snoqualmie................116..........164.......-29%.........$477,729.......$504,367.....-5%
Renton.......................445..........695.......-36%.........$405,149........$447,133......-9%
Vashon Island.............45...........54.........-17%........$464,354........$491,971.....-6%

Interesting numbers aren't they? While you have to be careful about any statistics you put together or read as they can be slanted or spun in various ways, we believe while it may still be a bit early to tell, but we could be close to the bottom. Even so, we look at our market in Seattle as having huge potentials for buyers right now. There has never been so much inventory and prices are soft. But as you can se from the number above, while all the areas are experiencing a slow down in number of sales, prices have dropped in some areas, stayed pretty much the same in others, and have risen in others.

The Seattle Real Estate Market holds some really good opportunities at this time for the smart buyer. Over the last couple of years for example, there have been a very large number of Town Homes built in close-in neighborhoods. Some of these Town Homes are in good locations and some are not, but what they all have in common is that you now have a very motivated seller and good inventories to choose from. The same is true for many condo buildings so there are some very good deals to be had, but you have to understand pricing in this market and know how to get the best property at the best price. There are great opportunities but you have know what you are doing. And because of the traffic and now the cost of fuel, the close in neighborhoods will experience even more demand over the next several years.

And now because of gas prices and little to no possibility that they will be going down any time soon, will that "drive until you can afford what you want in a house" mentality be gone soon? There will be increasing pressure for those homes in close-in neighborhoods. And as you see by the above numbers those areas prices haven't been effected very much during this slow down as it is. But there are really good homes in these neighborhood that will sell for much less than they should over the next several months. This is a great time to buy in Seattle, we are convinced of that, but you have to buy smart, you have to know the market and the city. Today there are 88 Active Listing on Magnolia and Queen Anne between $600,000 and $800,000. Last year at this time there were maybe 40. What we have always found is that about 2 out of every 20 Listings are really good homes to buy. Today we know of that 88 homes Listed that there are 12 excellent homes to buy at about a 10% saving over last years prices. Now, we don't recommend that you buy home today if you plan on selling it again in two years, but if you are going to be in a home at least 5 years, this may be the best time to buy that we have has in almost 20 years.

Labels: Buying Homes in Seattle, Seattle Real Estate Market Conditions

Yesterday I was listening to a local radio station in Seattle in my car. The host had a guest on that was talking about what makes a person and country happy. This was in response to a recent report listing the Happiest Countries in the World. A recent study from Britain's University of Leicester came up with a range of statistical data they devise to rank the world's happiest nations.

Denmark ranked number one, then Switzerland, Austria, Iceland, Bahamas, Finland, Sweden, Bhutan, Brunei, and Canada, round out the top 10. Zimbabwe and Burundi were at the bottom. China came in No. 82, India ranked 125, and Russia was 167. The U.S. came in at 23. According to the study, the countries that are happiest are those that are healthy, wealthy, and wise, with the most important factors being health, the level of poverty, and access to basic education. Population size of the country also played a role. Smaller countries with "greater social cohesion and a stronger sense of national identity" scored higher, while those with the largest populations scored far worse.

Now this guess, I didn't get his name or where he was from other that I think he graduated from Yale University has his opinion on what makes people happy. His list were: #1 Purpose in Life, #2 Success Level, and #3 Control of their Life. He went on to say that people that are doing things that they consider to be significant, things that help other people tend to be the happiest. The the success level of ones career or endeavor will make a person happy and lastly the amount of control a person has over their life is very important to ones happiness.

Now some you may be asking how we are going to turn this into something to do with real estate...well read on!

This guy belongs to some research group that I don't know the name of but they have done a lot of research regarding peoples happiness. What they found in questioning thousands of people is that the time these people are the least happy is during their morning and evening commutes to and from work. He said this was the case because during this time you are "not in control, the traffic is." He even said something like "so people that have moved out into the suburbs to live a quite peaceful life are finding that they are not as happy as those that live closer to work and the commute time a a lot less." See we got there. :-)

We have always believed that homes that are located in the "close-in" Seattle neighborhoods will have greater value now and will continue to have greater value over the long run from those homes located father out from the center of the city. Now with gas prices, a growing population, and more traffic issues with little to no good and economical solutions for them, "in-city" homes should continue to be the best investments. And, there are some of the best opportunities we have seen since 1999 to buy homes in the city right now. Inventories are high, you don't have the pressure to make a quick decision, there are NOT bidding wars anymore, and prices are down by as much as 10% to 15% from where they were in at the peak in May of 2007.

Throughout the US home prices are falling at the sharpest rate ever. The Office of Federal Housing and Standard & Poor's reported this week that Aprils 2008 home prices had a record decline over Aprils 2007 prices.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of the top 20 cities fell by 15.3% in April 2008 as compared to April of 2007. According to this report, Seattle was only down 4.9% from last year although for March 2008 Seattle was slightly up from March of 2007. We question this 4.9% figure as we think the decline in Seattle prices is closer to the 8% to 10% range, but that depends on the price range of the home as well. The hardest hit price range in Seattle at this time is in the over $750,000 to about $1.5 million range. We have seen a slight increase in sales activity for May and June however, but it goes in spurts. Two weeks will go by and nothing will happen with a listing, no showings, nothing. Then there is a spurt in activity and we'll get 3 or 4 showings in just a few days. Some agents report that they have no sales for a month and then 3 in one week. There are buyers out there, and this is actually the best time to buy a home in Seattle since 1990, but people are scared to buy because they read about all the bad stuff happening everywhere else. And, because they think the market may be still falling and they are trying to anticipate the bottom of the market before they step in. The problem is you never know you are at the bottom until your past it, and it's already gone up.

Some economists say that we are a year away from the bottom, and that may be the case, but where? Each market in the country has different factors affecting it. For most of 2007 prices in most of the US were falling and in Seattle they were still going up. Seattle has a strong economy and there are a lot of new people moving here for new jobs. It's anticipated that another 1 million people will be living in Seattle by 2020.

Seattle hasn't been effected anywhere as much as other areas, like Arizona, Southern California, Nevada, or Florida by all the foreclosures either. Seattle ranks about 27th nationally for the number of foreclosures and most of those are in Pierce County. In fact, we believe that the main reason for much of this huge "price drop" nationally is a direct result of so many foreclosures and Short-Sales. Some estimates are that 1 in 4 homes that sell in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Southern California is a Short Sale. Short Sales and Foreclosure sales can be as low as 60% or 70% of the market value, but most are about 75% to 85% of market value. Hum...85% of market value, isn't that about a 15% decrease in the home values? And the reported home price decease nationally was 15.3%! These distressed homes are selling at those prices and some people will be making "a lot" of money in some markets down the road when the market turns around, and it will. Some areas will rebound slowly and some rather quickly and we believe Seattle will be one of the faster turn-around areas in the country.

Here's the deal...I had a boss many years ago that said one day that "Success breeds success". I found that to be true, very true. So is the reverse true as well? I think so. We see all this bad news, almost every day now, for the past year or so, about how bad the real estate market is and about how bad the economy is. We hear that the world may come to an end because of global warming, we hear about how messed up the world is, and then we start to believe it whether it's affecting our city, our country, the world, or our real estate market. And believing all this stuff will eventually affect us. With the higher fuel and food prices, a knee jerk reaction in the credit markets for problems they often times created, consumer sentiment is pretty low, which perpetuates the problem even more. Living in Seattle we are living in one the best places in the US. And the US is the greatest country in the world. We are the most generous and innovative people in the world. You know we have our problems but overall we are pretty well off and I know we'll fix the problems we have, but the great thing is that we will always have new problems to overcome. Lets all have better attitudes and a more positive outlook, it works!!

Labels: Buying Homes in Seattle, David and Karen Bell, Foreclosures, Seattle Real Estate Market Conditions, Short Sales